Sound Bites on the Future of Common-Sense Conservatism:
Trump Weakly ...
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The April Fools of Truth Social / Trump De-Listed as Billionaire.
Now comes Truth Social, Trump's most recent business train wreck. The twisted metal and casualties will be in plain sight a bit further down the track – but the trajectory is clear, because the pattern for Trump is the same: borrow money; loot the company; sue people; get sued; declare bankruptcy. Trump's over-valued business career features six bankruptcies and other failures including Trump University, Trump Airlines, Trump Vodka, Trump Foundation, Trump Casinos, Trump Cologne and his political business in 2022 was a loser too.
Truth Social stock value dropped about 60% since its IPO peak two weeks ago (8.5% lower today, April 10) – and is headed for penny-stock land, based on “actual” company performance ($58 million loss in 2023 on $4 million in revenue... revenue that was declining in 2023). Per usual, Trump cronies are taking millions in fees and salaries. Too bad Trump can't dump his own shares until fall. So bad in fact, that Trump was officially dropped from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (on April 9). As in the 1990s, Trump is likely broke – and now needs to live off of political grift.
As ever, the little guys are being manipulated along with the stock price. MAGA enthusiasts are suffering for their faith by clinging to the stock (propping it up) to make a moral point – while Wall Street professionals, especially short-sellers, are taking huge profits from the MAGA rubes.
Everything Trump touches turns to rust. There will be no “uniting” of the GOP behind Trump. Polls show half the Republican party is nominally to violently repulsed by Trump. 20% of the GOP may boycott elections or write-in a protest vote. Others will hold their nose and vote against Biden and the 3,000 left-wing political bureaucrats in his Administration.
April 10, 2024: T. Gibson -
Two Republican Leaders With Integrity.
Nikki Haley had two choices after Super Tuesday: 1) stay in, build her brand like Bernie Sanders did in 2016 and win more GOP delegates as Trump Fatigue grows; or, 2) conserve her cash (estimated to be $30 million or more) and invest in re-building the GOP after Trump bankrupts it. Either way, she would have been – and now is – the leader of the Post-Trump Era.
She rightly did not endorse Trump. Trump will have to earn the support of the 50 percent of the party that does not support him, will not support him, but may turn out to vote against Biden. Haley, therefore, will not get a speaking role at the Trump Convention. Not to worry. No one will be watching his cliche' gold-plated coronation.
Henry Barbour was the only RNC Committeeman with the courage to sponsor a resolution to protect the meager RNC treasury from being looted by Trump, to pay his legal bills. The Resolution did not go forward because of Trump-stacked RNC rules. Henry will surely receive some Trump-branded dead cats on his doorstep. But he too will have integrity to lead the GOP after Trumpty Dumpty's Great Fall.
March 17, 2024: T. Gibson -
TRUMP FATIGUE SYNDROME / Super Tuesday & Beyond. Recall that most of Bernie Sander's wins in 2016 came in the later primaries – when Democrats became increasingly exhausted with smug Hillary and her deplorables.
> Bernie won 7 primaries in a row, March 22 to April 9;
> In early May, Bernie won Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, and Rhode Island;
> In June, Bernie nearly matched Hillary in California.
The GOP Primary is now a simple binary decision: Against Trump / For Trump. Forget about policies, cash-on-hand, ad points, and Trump's cowardice to debate. If history holds, Trump's legal and business failures, foul mouth, Putin valentines, and who-knows-what's-next – predict that Trump, like Hillary, will become more and more and more tiresome.
THIS is a key reason Nikki Haley needs to stay in the Republican race, all the way to the Convention. She becomes the GOP's “Plan B” – when Trump is convicted of criminal offenses in the Fall of 2024, and becomes repellent to 40% of the GOP, 92% of Independents and 99% of Democrats.
In South Carolina, in communities that most resemble the rest of America – population centers like Columbia and Charleston – Haley beat Trump 60–40. This trend could grow and become self-sustaining. Yes, the RNC rules are stacked in favor of Trump by his supplicants there. But the longer he has to stretch to collecting 1,215 delegates – the more support Haley gathers to lead the GOP through a) Trump's general election defeat in the Fall, or b) Trump's third Impeachment in 2025.
March 1, 2024: T. Gibson -
The Bogus Billionaire. In 1990, Donald Trump had a negative net worth of $900 million. He bluffed his way out of it, and got banks to loan him even MORE money – including $400,000 per month for his "living expenses." But he won't skate this time.
On February 22, 2024, New York Supreme Court Justice Engoron signed the order for Trump to pay fines and interest for his business fraud convictions with no delays.
Interestingly, Trump is mostly keeping his mouth shut about the $500 million in fines and interest charges he owes resulting from sexual assault and business fraud convictions. To complain loudly is to confess he isn't a billionaire. He will try to delay paying, per his usual business practice – stiffing vendors, lawyers, lobbyists, and banks while he launches new hustles to help his cash flow. Three new hustles:
> Hawking $399 high-top sneakers. The whole world is laughing.
> Borrowing against his shares in Trump Media/Truth Social – that will likely tank by summer.
> Seizing RNC bank accounts.
Even though RNC fundraising under Trump's influence has been the worst in memory – and only a third of DNC fund-raising – there are still millions that Trump can grab to pay Melania's hair stylist $9,000 a month, pay himself millions in rent for his PAC's office in Trump Tower, and buy gas for his private jet – all of which were previously claimed as campaign expenses.
To make the RNC grift happen, Trump will install Lara Trump as co-chair of the RNC. As supplicant, Lara said, with remarkable candor (stupidity), “. . . she'd ensure 'that every single penny' of RNC funds goes toward putting her father-in-law back in the White House.”
Only one wrinkle in Trump's RNC cash flow dreams – he needs to win 1,215 primary delegates to trigger the RNC's “Presumptive Nominee” status and to get hold of the RNC's cash. Nikki Haley could delay or prevent that day from arriving.
February 26, 2024: T. Gibson -
Follow the Money – Haley Beat Trump Almost 3 to 1 in January. The Haley campaign reported campaign donations of $16.5 million in January 2024. Trump DID NOT release January fund-raising because it likely follows the dismal averages of $6.3 Million a month in Q4 2023.
Three factors:
> The race is now a simple duplex decision: Against Trump / For Trump. 72 % of Americans are against Trump. He is un-electable – and Haley out-polls Biden by 15 points.
> Trump's “Persecution PR strategy” for raising money is out of gas.
> Trump Q4 2023 filings show he spends HALF of his PAC donations on lawyers. So MAGA small donors making minimum wage are paying for Trump's $1,000-an-hour New York lawyers. This disconnect will grate on MAGA donors.
February 14, 2024: T. Gibson -
Trump Invites Russian Aggression in Europe – Loses Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania in November 2024 General Election. IF ... Trump is the nominee – because of his “unhinged” invitation to Putin and "Russia to do whatever the hell they want" in Europe. Large swing voter blocks with STRONG family ties to Poland, Hungary, Ukraine, Czech, etc. in key communities such as Cleveland and Detroit – who voted trump in 2016 and 2020 – are rightly outraged and will not support Trump in 2024.
February 14, 2024: T. Gibson -
Happy Birthday Ronald Reagan. For we happy few, lucky enough to have worked for President Reagan, we celebrate his memory – and more urgently – the quality of his leadership and accomplishments as President. With unshakable core values and faith in the better nature of the American People, Reagan brought America together, defeated communism, and slammed on the brakes of government growth, waste, and taxes – to enable peace and prosperity in the decades that followed his presidency.
But now the Bad News. The Opposite of Reagan is Trump
> Reagan sought to develop and leverage America's best instincts.
Trump seeks retribution, division, and autocracy.
> Reagan was a kind man, who preferred self-deprecating humor.
Trump is a bully who takes pleasure in insulting and belittling people.
> Reagan sought-out talented professionals to work in government.
Trump surrounds himself with flunkies.
> Reagan had several successful careers – baseball broadcaster, award-winning actor, labor union leader, and political leader.
Trump has jury convictions for sexual assault and business fraud, multiple bankruptcies and business failures, and faces four criminal trials in 2024 – to include racketeering to overturn legitimate results of an election.
> Reagan worshiped God.
Trump worships himself.
The balance of the primary season offers the GOP a simple choice: For or Against Trump. Ronald Reagan would be against Trump.
February 10, 2024: T. Gibson -
83 Million More Reasons. A JURY, not the deep state or a rogue judge, awarded plaintiff E. Jean Carroll $83 million in damages related to the previous jury verdict finding Trump responsible for sexual assault and defamation. Commentators say the size of the damages partly owes to Trump's continual mouthing-off both in and out of court, as well as his refusal to comply with courtroom procedures. The Office of the President requires Reaganesque restraint, diplomacy, and respect for the law. Whether because he is juvenile, senile, or continues with bad habits from his entertainment/professional wrestling career, Trump continues to demonstrate that he is manifestly unfit to serve as POTUS.
January 26, 2024: T. Gibson -
Trump & RNC'S Naked Collusion. Late in the 2016 Primaries, Bernie Sanders' supporters discovered DNC staffers were helping primary candidate Hillary Clinton. Republicans expressed smug moral outrage. This week, Trump-appointed RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel said, “...it is time to unite behind Trump.” And a RNC committeeman circulated resolution language to declare Trump the Presumptive Nominee. Trump reportedly OK'ed the plan – per his bad habit of election interference. Recall Georgia 2020? “Find me 11,780 Votes.”
Listen again: https://one-and-done.org/audio/11780_votes.mp3
RNC rules require a majority of delegates – 1,215 – to become the party’s Presumptive Nominee.
Trump leads Haley in the race for delegates 32 to 17.
RNC Chair McDaniel (Trump-appointed) ... WAS … expected to bring the Pro-Trump Resolution to a vote at the RNC's Winter Meeting the week of January 30. But the plan was outed and canceled. If there are any spines left among the RNC professional and amateur politicians – the RNC should do penance and pass a resolution PROMISING a Free and Fair Primary.
January 25, 2024: T. Gibson -
An End To Iowa Caucus Poll-Ution. One week before the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama by 5 points. Final result? Obama beat Clinton by 8 points – a 13 point delta between polls and election results. And Clinton finished 3rd behind John Edwards. Expect Iowa surprises.
Despite all the hype and media focus, Iowa is even less important than in the past. With media interest measurably half of what it was in 2020 – there will be no sling-shot effect for Trump winning Iowa. Look what winning Iowa did for Mike Huckabee. (He is currently selling pro-Trump coloring books on Fox.)
The fear of Presidential wanna-bees crowding the Iowa primary and diluting Trump opposition – did not happen. With two solid challengers in double figures, Trump can no longer hide behind FOX's “Town Hall” soft-ball promotions. He must agree to debate.
Per former Attorney General Bill Barr's book, the more Trump opens his mouth, the worse he does in the polls. In a debate setting, Trump cannot filibuster. He should get shredded by two smart opponents, will get angry, and say something really foul or stupid.
Prediction 1: – Christian Right voters, older and rural, will not turn out for Trump as predicted. They are embarrassed about backing the morally bankrupt Trump, and it is really cold in Iowa tonight.
Prediction 2: – Post Iowa, Haley could finish strong in New Hampshire. Then sling-shot to win South Carolina, where she was two-time governor. With that, it will be a long and grinding primary for Trump.
January 15, 2024: T. Gibson -
Criminal Trials No Fun Anymore? Could Trump's strategy for merchandising his Persecution PR to mine campaign contributions lose its flavor and begin grinding on Common Sense Conservatives. It seems that way given the fact that the RNC can barely raise its own rent anymore – and trails the DNC in cash-on-hand by a factor of 3.
January 3, 2024: T. Gibson -
Convictions Matter. 1) Moral Convictions – During the Trump administration, the Christian Right's supportive view of Trump was, more or less, "... we don't want him to sing in our choir, we just want him to carry our holy water." But that hypocrisy is the tattoo any Christian wears, by claiming to have personal moral scruples – and – support for Trump. Other candidates are available to carry holy water without duplicity. And there are now signs the Christian Right quietly is peeling away.
2) Criminal Convictions .1 – If (when) criminal convictions start landing on Trump in the Spring of 2024 -- GOP soft-supporters of Trump will also slip out the back door. IF, by late spring, Trump has gathered electoral support for the nomination – expect massive voter's remorse will set in among non-MAGA GOP. Common-sense conservatives will see clearly that Trump is un-electable in Fall – and hope...somehow...for a better candidate to magically be anointed at the GOP Convention.
3) Criminal Convictions .2 – Currently, in Trump's swing-state match-ups with decrepit Biden, there is a 14-point negative swing AWAY from Trump, when he goes from regular-old-Trump – to Convicted-felon Trump. This, according to a recent Sienna College/NYT poll. And the trend has since been validated in polls by Reuters/Ipsos, Vanderbilt University, and Quinnipiac. Boil down: If (when) any of the 91 charges come in “guilty” – Biden and Democrats most certainly beat Trump in the general election – with or without the Fed cutting rates to make the economy happier, the Israeli-Gaza war is forgotten, or ...Biden is not the candidate.
December 15, 2023: T. Gibson -
Tyrant Trump. On Wednesday Trump stirred the pot again with his retribution rage for a second term. In speaking with his press agent, Sean Hannity (on Fox/Dec.6), Trump said he'd only be a dictator on “day one” if re-elected – where presumably he would sign dozens of Executive Orders dishing pay-backs to political opponents. This is pattern and practice for Trump, Obama, and now Biden – as the Presidency creeps toward autocracy. This is what Banana Republics do.
Obama launched unprecedented abuse of executive power – when he wrote his own laws to punish the coal industry (that Congress refused to pass). Obama also invented the “Dear Colleague Letter” from the Department of Education to schools in America, mandating transgender bathrooms under Title IX. This, of course, circumvented the federal regulatory process, and legal challenges to Obama's autocracy were successful – but time consuming and confusing.
Trump then reversed Obama's autocracy with his own Executive Orders – and then some.
Biden then reversed Trump's autocracy with his own Executive Orders – and then some.
Trump spent most of his day job as President watching Fox TV and barking orders to junior varsity staff. Talented staff quit – and usually left a trail of pithy descriptions of Trump as an imperious moron – and/or a trail of subpoenas. Trump never read the job description of President of the United States. He doesn't understand the management and budget process, the regulatory process, the restrictions on presidential power – and certainly not the decorum and traditions of the Executive Office of The President – so important to Ronald Reagan. Hence, Trump is unable to lead, inspire, work with Congress, or govern. He can only Rule. Not a good thing for the world's oldest democracy.
December 8, 2023: T. Gibson
illustration by Yorik
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