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Polls and Politics:

Trump Weakly ...

2024

NOTES
Note 1: With Trump the officially nominated candidate of the Republican party, and Harris the officially nominated candidate the Democratic Party, our team will suspend updating this website until further notice. We will abide by Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment, which is to speak no ill of a GOP candidate during a general election.

Note 2: There are only losers in this election. Either Harris will lose and Trump becomes President, or the other way around. But the biggest losers are the American people who have been betrayed by the two major parties and too much Oligarch Super PAC money. The result? Two terrible Presidential candidates.
August 23: Harris Official. Harris officially accepts the Democratic Party's nomination for President.
July 21: Biden Withdraws from Race. President Biden exits the race and endorses his running mate, Kamala Harris. Within 36 hours, Democratic Party leaders resoundingly confirm Harris as the party's candidate for President.
July 19: Trump Nominated by GOP. At the GOP Convention, Trump is introduced by intellectual peer, Hulk Hogan, and goes on to accept the Republican Party's nomination in a rambling, incoherent, set of remarks.
July 15: Classified Documents Case Dismissed. Trump-appointed Federal Judge Aileen Cannon dismisses all charges relating to Trump's handling of classified documents, ruling that the appointment of a Special Counsel violated the Constitution.
July 13: Attempted Assassination. In Butler Pennsylvania, Trump narrowly escapes assassination by a lone gunman. Numerous security lapses were subsequently discovered -- including flights over the rally site by the gunman's drone.
July 1: Supreme Court Goes Rogue. Despite the absence of either a consitutional or statutory basis, 6 Justices of the Supreme Court decide that Presidents should have absolute immunity for official acts while in office, creating future confusion over what constitutes an "official act."
June 27: Biden Stumbles in Debate. Joe Biden stumbles in the first Presidential debate, while Trump tells 21 lies in 90 minutes.
May 30: New York Verdicts. Trump is found guilty on all counts in a New York State trial on hush-money charges.
May: Trump's Quiet and Rises. In relative "quiet period," Trump is out of sight and rises in the polls.
April 9: Bloomberg to Trump: "You're Fired." With "Truth Social" stock tanking 60% since its IPO peak two weeks ago, Trump is officially dropped from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. As in the 1990s, analysts speculate that Trump is likely broke and now needs to live off of political grift.
March 12: "You're Fired" & Trump Begins Looting the RNC. Trump commands mass firings (60 staffers / about a third of professional staff) at the RNC in order to spend "...every penny to get Trump back into the White House," as so-stated by his new RNC Co-Chair puppet, Lara Trump, his daughter-in-law. Gutting RNC staff in an election year predicts fund-raising disasters, sparse support for Senate and House races, and National Convention disasters.
March 8: RNC Declines to Protect Donor Money From Trump Legal Expenses. Henry Barbour was the only RNC Committeeman with the courage to sponsor a resolution to protect the meager RNC treasury from being spent on Trump's legal bills (and whatever else). The Resolution did not go forward because of Trump-stacked RNC rules.
March 6: Haley Withdraws from Primary / Preserves Integrity. Nikki had two choices after Super Tuesday: 1) stay in, build her brand like Bernie Sanders did in 2016 and win more GOP delegates as Trump Fatigue grows; or, 2) conserve her cash (estimated to be $30 million or more) and invest in re-building the GOP after Trump bankrupts it. Either way, she would have been – and now is – the leader of the Post-Trump Era. She rightly did not endorse Trump. Trump will have to earn the support of the 50 percent of the party that does not support him, will not support him, but may turn out to vote against Biden. Haley, therefore, will not get a speaking role at the Trump Convention. Not to worry. No one will be watching his cliche' gold-plated coronation.
February 28: Bogus Billionaire, redux. The New York appellate court declined to stay the New York Attorney General, permitting her to seize and sell Trump's assets to satisfy his financial obligations under the judgment rendered against him in his business fraud trial. Trump had cited his inability to obtain an appeal bond in the full $450 million amount of the judgment, which suggests that his real estate properties are highly leveraged and his equity in them is nowhere near $450 million.
February 22: Trump Told to "Pay Up". Trump told to pay the disgorgement and fines levied in his New York business fraud conviction, together with interest running at a rate over $100,000 per day. Trump and his sons are further barred from serving as officers or directors in any New York corporation.
February 10: Trump Invites Russian Aggression Against NATO. In Conway, South Carolina, Trump says that, if elected, he will tell our NATO allies that if they don't "pay up", he will encourage Russia to invade them and "do whatever the hell they want."
February 6: Trump is Smacked-Down on Claim of Immunity. A three judge federal appeals court panel (not deep-state-Biden Justice Department bad guys) unanimously rejected Trump's claim to be above the law. Excerpt: "We cannot accept former President Trump's claim that a President has unbounded authority to commit crimes that would neutralize the most fundamental check on executive power – the recognition and implementation of election results."
January 30: 83 Million More Reasons. A JURY, not the deep state or a rogue judge, awarded plaintiff E. Jean Carroll $83 million in damages related to the previous jury verdict finding Trump responsible for sexual assault and defamation. Commentators say the size of the damages partly owes to Trump's continual mouthing-off both in and out of court, as well as his refusal to comply with courtroom procedures.
January 25: RNC Moves to Dump Rules and Name Trump “Presumptive Nominee”. Trump-appointed RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel said, “it is time to unite behind Trump,” and David Bossie, an RNC committeeman, circulated resolution language to preempt established RNC Primary Rules. Current rules require a candidate to win a majority of delegates – 1,215 – to become the party’s presumptive nominee. Trump leads Haley in the race for delegates 32 to 17. McDaniel is expected to bring the Bossie resolution to a vote at the RNC's Winter Meeting, the week of January 30.
January 23: New Hampshire Results.
1. Nikki Haley wins 9 delegates, Trump wins 12.
2. Haley performance beats final polls by 9 points (9 points better against Trump than predicted).
3. Haley captures 60% of independent votes.
4. Haley now out-polls Trump in head-to-head race against Biden.
5. Trump celebrates N.H. victory by humiliating Sen. Tim Scott and criticizing Haley's dress.
January 15: Iowa Caucus Night. In brutal weather, fewer than 60% of the number of 2016 caucus goers turned out, and then gave Trump barely half their votes. In a sign that Trump would doom the GOP in the general election, nearly half of Nikki Haley's supporters say that they would vote for Biden rather than Trump in the general election, with another 27% favoring a third party candidate.
January 11: Again – “Control Your Client!”. Judge Arthur Engoron again said to Trump lawyers – after Trump mouthed-off at his New York fraud trial. "Fraud was central to the operation of the Trump Organization's activities," prosecutors told the judge.
January 5: Supreme Court Will Hear Trump Ballot Issue. Oral Arguments set for February 8.

2023

December 20-28: Trump kicked off ballots in primary and general elections in Maine (by Secretary of State) and Colorado (by state Supreme Court). Michigan defers its decision. States have the authority to determine ballot eligibility. Lawsuits have been filed in several other states to keep Trump off the ballot citing Section 3 of the 14th Amendment – intimidating/extorting Vice President Pence from certifying 2020 Electoral College results in the Senate, undermining the 2020 election results in Georgia and other states, and fomenting, aiding and supporting the January 6, 2021 insurrection. States include: Alaska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Vermont and Virginia.
November 14: Trump's Truth Social Headed for Bankruptcy? Trump Media & Technology Group's accountants reported "...substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern... substantial doubt that the company will have sufficient funds to meet its liabilities as they fall due, including liabilities related to promissory notes previously issued by the company.” Trump is chairman of Trump Media. Trump's company had an operating loss of $23 million in 2023 and only booked $2.3 million in revenue in the first 6 months of 2023.
November 7: “Control Your Client!” Presiding Judge Engoron to Trump lawyers at Trump's New York fraud trial. Among other things said, Trump had insulted the Judge's wife.
November 6: Iowa Governor Reynolds Endorses DeSantis. Much like Oprah endorsing Obama in the Fall of 2006 (when Hillary Clinton “had a lock on Iowa”), the popular Governor tips the scale away from Trump – and will accelerate Trump's decline.
October 26: Trump Sinks In Iowa / Trial Disclosures Taking Toll. After 3 months of holding steady and before Pence withdrawal, Trump declined over 2 points in one week in Iowa (Real Clear Politics 10.26.23). This tracks the decline of Jeb Bush in 2015.
October 25: Et Tu, Mark? Trump Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows, has reportedly testified under oath at least 3 times (Special Counsel’s office and grand jury) about Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Meadows reportedly testified he had told the former president the election was lost.
October 24: Trump's "Elite Strike Force Team" Continues to Hemorrhage Guilty Pleas. Trump campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis pleaded guilty to aiding and abetting false statements about evidence of voter fraud in Georgia – while assisting Rudy Giuliani testify before a Georgia legislature subcommittee.
October 20: Chesebro Joins Powell. "Fake Elector" scheme lawyer Kenneth Chesbro decides NOT to take his chances with a jury of his peers, pleads guilty to one felony count and will testify in Trump's Georgia election fraud/racketeering trial.
October 19: Krakens are Released ... on Trump. Former "Kraken" lawyer Sydney Powell decides NOT to take the fall, pleads guilty to reduced charges and will testify in Trump's Georgia election fraud/racketeering trial.
October 11: Trump Praises Israel's Attackers. Trump flatters Hezbollah as being "very smart" and criticizes Israel after Hamas' brutal attack on civilians.
October 3: 75% of "Persuadable" Voters Oppose Trump. Trump negatives among undecided/persuadable voters (regarded as moderates) increased nearly 22 points since Trump's many criminal indictments in August (Wall Street Journal). Trump's clownish persecution PR works for MAGA supporters and some in the GOP, but they are highly negative among "persuadables" and independents (35% to 50% all voters) as well as more than half of the GOP who do not support trump. This makes Trump un-electable in the 2024 general election. A Vote for Trump in the 2024 primaries is a vote to elect a Democrat.
October 3: Agreement With Grand Jury Criminal Charges. "Persuadable" Voters, 5 to 1, agree that Trump actions to change the 2020 election outcome were illegal (Wall Street Journal).
September 21: Fall Trump Fatigue. Four challengers are now in double digits in New Hampshire, where Trump has fallen to 39% (Source: Real Clear Politics).
September 12: Trump is Loser in First Debate. Post-debate polling among Republican voters: “How Open Are You To Considering/Not Considering Each Candidate?” (WashPost/Ipsos). All candidates who showed-up for the debate rose by double-digit percentages in “considering.” Trump, who boycotted, lost 3 points to "considering” and earned 7 more points to "Not Considering.” The more Trump dodges talking about issues — the more he will decline from his persecution-spun indictment-induced peak.
August 31: New Daytime TV Blockbuster Announced. Judge Scott McAfee issued order that all court proceedings in the Georgia RICO case — related to the “...find me 11,780 votes...” attempt to subvert Georgia's 2020 presidential election results — will be live streamed on the Fulton County Court's YouTube channel and televised. Reminder that 57% of Americans watched the first day of the O.J. trial.
August 28: Federal Trial Date Set for March 4, 2024. Trump's lawyers asked for a trial start date in 2026. Ever the legal strategist, Trump called presiding Judge Chutkan, “...a biased, Trump-hating judge.” THIS trial is on federal charges of election subversion — alleging that Trump used the January 6 riots to stop Mike Pence from certifying election results and thereby deny millions of Americans of their vote.
August 24: New Cartoon Series Debuts. Mr. “I am your retribution” Trump officially declared himself to be a cartoon villain in a well-rehearsed booking mug shot. Hilarity ensued when he proceeded to produce merchandise with the slogan "Never Surrender" under the photo of him literally surrendering.
August 14: Trump Charged with Racketeering in Georgia. Trump and 18 of his closest co-defendants are charged under Georgia's RICO (Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organization) statute with conducting a criminal enterprise to subvert Georgia's 2020 presidential election results.
August 8: Racketeering Charges Predicted Against Trump. Media/analysts now speculate that Trump will be charged under Georgia's RICO statute for his "New Jersey gangster-style" use of threats, orchestration, and instructions to underlings to reverse 2020 election losses in Georgia. In Georgia, the RICO statute was previously used to convict 11 corrupt public school officials conspiring to inflate school scores (Source: WSJ).
August 3: Trump's Victimization Fund-Raising Declines 63 Percent. According to Politico, Trump's fund-raising declined from his April Indictments ($4 million from 80,000 donors) to his 2nd Indictments on June 13 ($1.3 M from 35,000 donors). Analysts see Trump's "deep state witch hunt" excuses being overtaken by life-long bad habits.
August 1: "Right to Lie" Defense. Trump Claims "Right to Lie" defense in four more election fraud indictments – brought by a grand jury of his peers – not by the "deep State."
July 31: Bogus Billionaire Trump Plunders his PAC to Pay Melania's Hair Stylist. Trump small donors paid Hervé Pierre Braillard $108,000 to have Melania's hair look great again. The hair stylist is listed a strategic consultant in FEC filings (a laughable lie).
July 27: Superseding Indictment in Documents Case. New charges against Trump for “willful concealment” of secret documents.
July 25: Giuliani Concedes Lies. Giuliani concedes he lied to support Trump's election fraud in Georgia.
July 21: Trump Settles With Michael Cohen. Trump agreed to pay over $1.7 Million in fees related to Cohen's role in paying-off Trump prostitutes for their silence in the 2016 campaign.
July 21: Trump-Appointed Florida Judge Generously Delays Trump Trial Until After the GOP Primaries. Judge Aileen Cannon Moved Trump's document 'concealment' trial date from December 2023 to May 20, 2024.
July 18: Trump Flatters Chinese Dictator Xi on Fox. “...he rules with an iron first...he is brilliant...everything is perfect.” Other than Trump's bizarre flattery for the brutal Chinese dictator, analysts ask when Fox will provide equal time for other Republican Presidential candidates.
July 6: More Incriminating Evidence Released. As requested by Trump's trial judge, the DoJ released more evidence, including a June 2, 2022 video of Trump's personal assistant removing 64 boxes of classified documents, but only returning 25 to 30 boxes to storage (Wall Street Journal). This was prior to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, and before Trump waved Iran War Plans in front of fund-raising targets at his New Jersey golf course on July 21, 2022. Question: At what point does sloppy, negligent and willful concealment of subpoenaed documents become, in plain English, "attempted theft" (Trump was caught).
July 4: This Day Reminds Us to Resist Tyrants. King George was then. But now, junior-varsity tyrants maneuver to out-flank our Constitution – with Executive Orders; waivers (i.e., personal preferences NOT to enforce existing laws on immigration and drugs); rule-makings to splice into old laws new rules that Congress never intended; Obama's “Dear Colleague Letter” (Title IX requires transgender bathrooms); Biden's arbitrary debt forgiveness; and arrogant assertions (Trump's “I can declassify Top Secret documents, just by thinking about it.”). In 2024, vigilant voters can reject the tyrant trend.
June 19: Fox Anchor Bret Baier & Donald Trump. Baier to Trump: "You lost the 2020 election ... 50 'Trump Team' lawsuits proved NO widespread fraud." Trump: "I won the 2020 election by a lot." In the same interview, Trump claimed that the FBI planted evidence (classified documents) at Mar-a-Lago.
June 17: Poll. Trump Republican support drops by 12 Percent in the first full poll since Trump's Espionage Act/Document indictments – from 53 to 47 percent of GOP voters (CNN/SSRS Poll). In the same poll, DeSantis held steady at 26 percent and Mike Pence support was up 50% to 9 percent among Republicans. Point: New Pence support (Christian Right) pulled away from Trump.
June 13: On Eve of Arraignment, Trump Can't find New Lawyers. "Several prominent attorneys declined to take Trump as a client..." Benedict Kuehne, David Markus were named as specifically declining to represent Trump. (Washington Post) Comment: If Trump's own lawyers can't trust Trump to tell the truth, how can the American people trust Trump for anything – including having his finger on the nuclear war button?
June 12: Alan Dershowitz Calls It "A Strong Indictment". "Mr. Smith has made a stronger case against Mr. Trump, than many observers, including me, expected." Dershowitz, who represented Trump in his 2020 Impeachment trial. — Wall Street Journal
June 9: Trump Lawyers Quit on Day of Espionage Act Indictments. Trump Lawyers Jim Trusty and John Rowley, "offered no explanation..." for quitting. Media sources reported they quit because Trump lied to them. Trusty had made multiple media appearances on behalf of trump defending Trump prior to the indictments.
June 7: Pence and Christie Put Trump in Vice. With Pence's genuine witness as a Confessing Christian, the HYPOCRISY of ANY Christian support for Trump is laid bare. Former Christian support for Trump will drift away. With Christie's relish in attacking Trump stupidities and incompetence, Trump will take the bait and respond. Trump will quickly say more things that are stupid or foul, and remind voters he is a loser.
June 3: Trump Advocated Default! / Biden Signs McCarthy Compromise. Trump reminded voters of his favorite crooked business practice – borrowing money, looting companies he borrowed against, then defaulting on the loans, stiffing small business vendors, or declaring bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the McCarthy-Biden compromise kept Social Security checks in the mail and saved American taxpayers $1.5 Trillion.
June 1: “Varsity” Opponents Enter the Race. With DeSantis, Pence and Christie announced or announcing, Trump no longer has the media stage to himself. This spring, he had the chance to present an agenda for the future. Instead, he merchandised his criminal indictment to raise money, minimized a jury award for sexual assault and, via CNN, whined-on about losing in 2020. Trump will now face appropriate attacks for his lack of moral integrity, criminal behavior, cheating in business, incompetence, and old-age.
May 30: Trump Re-Announces Previous Executive Order Initiative & Reminds Voters of His Incompetence in Office. In 2018, while President and the GOP controlled both the House and Senate, Trump announced he would issue an Executive Order to challenge “Birthright Citizenship.” He never got it done. WHY? Incompetence.
May 11: Conservative Sen. Todd Young (R, IN) Announces Opposition to Trump Presidential bid. Young, previously worked at the Heritage Foundation and has a lifetime 83% conservative rating from the American Conservative Union. When asked why? “Where do I begin...”
May 10: CNN's Demagogue's Delight. Trump bullied and bragged through 70 minutes, reminding Americans why he is unfit for the office of President – and is the opposite of Ronald Reagan.
May 8: Trump Proclaims A Legal Victory! He is merely convicted of sexual assault instead of rape, and fined $5 million for defamation.
April 19: Trump backs Disney against DeSantis. Trump, sides with Disney social agenda in attempted swipe at DeSantis. Wall Street Journal: “Trump, these days, attacks Republicans more than Democrats.”
March 30 - April 4: Trump plays the martyr. Trump leverages his new criminal indictment, related to paying hush money to prostitutes, to plead martyrdom and beg for campaign money.
February 22: Trump's East Palestine Campaign Stop. Like Al Sharpton chasing television cameras after a police shootings, Donald Trump makes a campaign stop for the TV cameras in East Palestine and promotes his "Trump" brand of bottled water that, according to some reports, had been sitting in a warehouse for 13 years. Also, like another former president, Trump delivers a (not so) convincing message: "I care."
February 14: Nikki Haley's Valentine To Trump. The popular former governor of South Carolina, will ensure Trump's third 2024 Primary loss in a row. Like elderly Biden in 2020, elderly Trump will lose the ground-game primaries in Iowa & New Hampshire, limp into S.C., and could finish third behind DeSantis and Haley.
February 1: Nikki Haley Announces. Haley, as former governor and "Favorite Daughter" of South Carolina, was clearly emboldened to announce for 2024 – based on Trump's boring S.C. rally and polls showing Trump trailing DeSantis by 12 points in N.H.
January 19: Trump Fined Nearly $1 million for bringing (another) frivolous lawsuit. In dismissing the suit, U.S. District Judge Donald Middlebrooks called Trump, “a prolific litigant who is repeatedly using the courts to seek revenge...”
January 12: Trump's Own Staffer (Mole) Leaks Trump Subpoena To Washington Post. Even the few left in Trump's dwindling consultant corps are leaking Trump internal documents to the media. Who is the mole?
January 7: Trump Confirms His Loss of Party Leadership, by playing no role in McCarthy election as Speaker.

2022

December 15 Poll: DeSantis 52 - Trump 36 among likely GOP primary voters in 2023 (Wall Street Journal Poll). This poll again validates that Trump supporters comprise about one-third of activist GOP voters; "Reagan Republicans" (Common Sense Conservatives) comprise about a third; and "Mainstream Republicans" comprise about a third.
December 6: Trump Companies Convicted of Tax Fraud. New York jury finds The Trump Corp. and Trump Payroll Corp. guilty on all counts of criminal tax fraud.
December 6: Trump Proxy Herschel Walker Loses in Georgia Senate Run-Off. Trump's golfing buddy and Melania's pick, chalks-up another Trump loss.
December 3: Trump OKs Suspension of Constitution. To address his claim of electoral losses, Trump calls for "...the termination of all rules, regulations,and articles, even those found in the Constitution."
November 22: Trump Hosts Celebrity Anti-Semite and Racist. Foreshadowing his campaign's poor judgment and incompetance, Trump hosted a high-visibility dinner at Mar-a-Lago with Ye (formerly known as Kanye West) and Nick Fuentes.
November 12: More proof that Trump is a loser. Trump's personal proxy candidates ran 9 to 15 points BEHIND common sense conservative Republicans on the same ticket in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire and Ohio. Toxic Trump cost the GOP control of the US Senate ... again.
September 14: The primaries are officially over. But ... they were over for Trump last May, when his Retribution Proxies were crushed by Common Sense Conservatives in Georgia. On balance, Trump was about 50/50 with his Primary Proxies – a coin toss, which means Trump's grip on GOP voters is gone.
July 19 Maryland Primary: The irony of Trump's proxy win over common-sense conservative Larry Hogan is that Trump's guy, Cox, will get slaughtered in the fall, flipping a Republican governorship to Democrats and further confirming that Trump is a BIG LOSER in general elections.
June 22: Analysts say the Republican primaries are essentially over for Trump. He is proven inconsequential, if not weak.
June 21: Trump-backed House candidates lose in Georgia and Alabama. Katie Britt, for U.S. Senator from Alabama, supported by Mitch McConnell, beats Mo Brooks, who was endorsed and then abandoned by Trump. Brooks: "Trump has no loyalty to anyone or anything other than himself."
June 7-21 Primaries: In the dozen primaries since Georgia, Trump-backed "Retribution Candidates" were about 50/50 – meaning Trump's backing (leadership) was, at best, inconsequential.
May 24: In Georgia, Trump's "Retribution Candidate" was crushed by a 50 point landslide. Brian Kemp's HUGE victory over David Perdue, who supported Trump's stolen election claims, has analysts seeing a clear pattern: Three consecutive weeks of major Trump-backed candidate losses are more than just a "Trump's Slump." Trump's grip on the Republican Party is over. Notably, former Vice President Mike Pence and four Republican governors vigorously opposed Trump-Perdue in Georgia – Larry Hogan of Maryland, Doug Ducey of Arizona, Pete Ricketts of Nebraska, and former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey. Trump is now regarded as "a" leader, but not "the" leader – of the GOP.
May 23: In Pennsylvania, Trump's high-stakes endorsement of celebrity Dr. Oz fizzles. No winner declared, a recount underway.
May 17: In Idaho, Trump's endorsement for governor lost in a near 2 to 1 landslide to Brad Little. In North Carolina, Senator Thom Tillis campaigned AGAINST Trump's endorsement for 5th District incumbent Congressman. Tillis' candidate won.
May 5: In Ohio, Mike Dewine comfortably defeated his Trump-backed challenger in the GOP nomination for governor. Trump insulted Dewine as "a terrible terrible guy." Tucker Carlson's endorsement and election eve air-time propelled J.D. Vance to a narrow victory in the Ohio GOP primary for U.S. Senator.
May 4: Maryland GOP Governor Larry Hogan, in Reagan Library Speech: "The last four years were the worst four years for the GOP since the 1930s, even worse than Watergate, when Ronald Reagan had to rebuild the party from ashes. We lost the White House, the Senate, The House, governors races, and state legislative bodies... I'm tired of losing."
May 3: Trump pays $750,000 fine to settle corruption charges stemming from fraudulent overcharges to the non-profit Inaugural Host Committee. Fraud charges included billing $300,000 to the non-profit for a private party for Trump's children.

illustration by Yorik

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